A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
