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Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.