Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.

Amy Valentine
Amy Valentine

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